Sunday, May 14, 2006
The Summer of War
The Summer of War
I cannot predict how much longer the guns will remain silent, all signs are pointing to a rather big nasty war, sooner rather than later. Iran will not agree to end its nuclear program so there are no peaceful avenues left. War is certain but how and when it breaks out is what matters most.
If you are Ahmadinejad, your only chance of surviving to 2009 are if you get your hands on nukes, terrorize your people into submission and prevent Bush from attacking. To do that you need time. Smashing your own people on the streets and hanging children from cranes is the easy part. I have been informed that Iran has imported foreign terrorists, one can assume these are Hezbollah and Palestinian mercenaries who are retained for extreme counterdemonstration operations. On call 24/7, these very special barbarians live in special barracks that provide them women, boys and entertainment. At the first sign of protest, they hop on their motos and brutality ensues.
This can work for a while but is an exceedingly dangerous way to perpetuate your regime but Iran only needs a couple more years to get the bomb and attack the US and Israel.
Getting the bomb and surviving Bush are really one and the same thing but break into two components: play the rest of the world off against Bush, make the price of war so high Bush dares not to attack.
China, Russia and anti-alanticists/anti-Americans are paid or naturally rally around the key points of preventing US unilateral action on Iran:
1- Bush was "wrong" on Iraq so he must be wrong on Iran
2- Negotiations will work
3- Iran is not a threat
While none of this in any way news to readers here, what is not being discussed is Iran's war preparations. The kind invitation to become Muslim in this week's peace letter was a final warning and an open declaration of war to come. The nature of this war is key to Ahamadinejad's strategy: create so much mayhem that Bush is discredited as a leader and unable to launch war on Iran during his presidency. Part and parcel of this strategy is to drive oil prices sky-high.
This makes a lot of sense. The Iranians are not dumb, they know how our system works, if the Democrats get control of Congress, how likely are they to vote for war with Iran? None of the Democrat leaders were formed in the days of FDR, there are a few Kennedy administration era and fewer still able to see Rwanda, Darfur and Baghdad as a single morally imperative war. The only Democrats who might go along with it are those pro-Israel enough to recognize that there is no time to act and if Iran gets the bomb, the second Shoah follows.
We know now that the London 7/7 plot cost the bombers 8000 UK pounds and couple of flights to Pakistan for "spiritual counseling" to get in touch with their inner Jihadi.
One bomb lab on the east coast could disperse several hundred bomb vests all over the country; the scum willing to blow themselves up are easy to find. Give them a good Qawadiri/Zawahiri/Bin Laden CD and they will start shaving their pubes and recording their final rants.
While there might be quite a bit of backlash against Islam in America, the planners think that committing such acts actually draws more people to Islam; in this regard, their thinking is far different than ours. Remember that this war is very much a shadow war, good intelligence is the key to winning. It should come as no surprise to the readers of this blog that the likes of Seymour Hersh the NYT and now USA Today are doing everything they can to destroy US intelligence capabilities. When you can't see into the shadows, you can't see the knife aimed for your heart. US intel before the war was weak, I submit that we have made some progress since 9-11 but mostly we have been lucky and, taking the fight to the enemy, have mostly kept terrorism from hitting our shores again.
There are two significant virulently anti-American terrorist networks in the US that have extensive operations and have largely not been touched by US counterintelligence: Hezbollah and Hamas.
These groups cannot survive without Iran; Iran is threatened and there are plenty of indications that they have been called upon to defend their patron and have agreed to do so.
For Iran, there is ZERO downside to launching an all-out terror war. Islamicly, it is the correct thing to do, strategically Bush is the uber-Enemy; Hamas hates him for destroying their beloved Saddam, Hezbollah hates him for destroying the Taleban and threatening Iran. As a bonus, Jewish targets will figure prominently in the mayhem.
Also making Iran's trigger finger itchy is the fact that they twice watched Saddam sit while the US deployed against him and then attacked when we were ready. Even after 9-11 it took six weeks before the US could respond in any real way. If they can hit hard enough and big enough, worldwide and with massive casualties they believe they can destabilize the weak western allies and neuter Bush.
In war momentum is everything. If Iran succeeded in stopping Gulf oil shipments for just a few months, they might cause the whole world to turn on the US and demand Bush back down and accede to Iranian ambitions.
This is what seems to be their thinking.
If Iran stalls long enough they get the bomb, if war breaks out, they hasten the return of the occluded 12th Imam and perhaps rally the Iranian nation to defend their regime.
There is no way to defeat the US military, the only way to defeat it is to prevent its deployment against you.
It is my belief that Bush has already decided to act. It is my further belief that in his meetings with PM Olmert this week, the US and Israel will finalize arrangements for the upcoming war. It has been my position for some time that the administration's post 9-11 strategy has been to finish every single terror sponsoring regime before 2009, the Taleban, Saddam, Iran, Hezbollah, North Korea, Syria and Khaddafy were all marked for elimination. Afghanistan was target one because it was the source of 9-11, Saddam was next because his regime required the most military force to take down. Khaddafy folded up shop when he saw what happened to Saddam; Iran is the last great nexus, victory there destroys Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas and many smaller groups.
On 9-11 Bush said our war was with terrorists and nations that sponsor terrorism; Iran has had five years to take itself off the list but has rather made its case only more urgent.
As in 2003, in 2006 we face the lesser powers seeking to deflate American global supremacy; while it is natural for nations to desire more power for themselves, China and Russia offer no model of a better world order than 61 years of American dominance. We may bruise their feelings acting unilaterally but for our way to prevail, Iran as we know it must end. The European Allies have only gone into a steeper decline since 9-11; we never did need their permission to act and the doddering scolding of a spinster Leftist aunt is never a reason for a young vital nation to stand for its core beliefs and act to the betterment of all mankind.
The Summer of War is here. It will be fought not just in the skies and waters of the Gulf but in the South American triangle, the streets of Europe, the borders of Israel, jungles of south Asia and in US cities. When the balloon goes up, all hell will break lose; the question on which thousands of lives stand at risk is who will act first. This will be a very big war. But it does not have to be as big as it could get if the US and its allies act by acting first. For all our sakes, I hope Bush acts immediately.