Sunday, April 16, 2006
Do or die
Iran's leaders are a terrorist government; on September 11th, Mr. Bush said our war is against regimes like this.
* Iranian backed terrorists have murdered and maimed our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan- for this they deserve to die.
* Iran has significantly advanced towards a nuclear shield to protect her ability to sponsor terrorism worldwide- for this they deserve to die.
* Iran shelters al Qaeda operatives- for this they deserve to die.
In essence, Iran is an enemy purely at war with the United States; her nuclear ambitions represent a clear and present danger to US interests. Iran has relations with every major global terror network; if Iran has the bomb, al Qaeda and Hezbollah have the bomb.
Having used three years of negotiations to shield her illegal and unnecessary nuclear program, Iran has openly admitted it was all a game to stall the allies while development proceeded. Any negotiation with this regime is worthless because they can neither negotiate in good faith nor be trusted to keep their word.
So, what is left other than war? Very little.
The only thing not tried that might work is for Congress to pass a Use of Force resolution and for the Administration give the Ayatollah's a "We Meant What We Said To Saddam, Would You Like Adjoining Cells?" ultimatum.
While it would be nice to avoid the casualties, even if the Iranian nuclear sites were dismantled under western supervision, the nature of the terrorist regime would not be changed although one could hope that such a humiliation would bring down the regime. However, for precisely that reason, these barbarians, who have attacked Embassies directly and indirectly all over the world, will not back down. Without their nukes, they really are nothing. Thugs like this never back down; think of them as SS troops, they are fanatics who will defends their twisted evil ideology to the death; you just have to kill them.
However, will Bush go all the way? Six years into his administration, Bush is politically weakened and his fingers were badly singed by events in Iraq.
Getting a Congressional resolution in the hopes of averting war is not a sure thing. Democratic talking points are already scripted- "you got Iraq wrong, you will get Iran wrong," "the American people and the west don't want a wider war" and "think about the children!" All the tougher in an election year.
If war happens, Bush will advise the congressional leadership in advance and inform the American people he has invoked the War Powers Act when the bombs start to land.
I cannot predict the direction the war will take after the first strikes. I can predict if we act, a year from now, we will stand in victory and if we do not we will kneel at the filthy murderous feet of the Iranian clerical regime. The US will cease to be a great world power.
If Iran goes down, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and al Qaeda will all be deeply wounded. They will have lost their main source of money. The price of oil and gas will shoot higher, Iraq will explode, however, with the removal of Iranian influence and interference, the entire region will stabilize and become independent and more democratic faster. These benefits are real, without Iranian backing Syria cannot politically protect Hezbollah in Lebanon and the groups loses its main source of funding. Lebanon can finally disarm Hezbollah finally. The Assad regime is only held up by Iran, with Iran gone, Assad is gone. If Hezbollah or Assad attack Israel, they will be gone sooner and be completely killed off.
On the Israel-Palestinian front, the Palestinians backed another loser and will suffer political isolation form the US. North Korea might also change its tune when it realizes they are the only item not done on Bush' Axis of Evil to-do list.
For Europe, there will be anger but they had their chance to use soft power and their appeasement predictably failed to deter aggression yet again. They will never learn but they can get over it, or not: it does not matter, Europe is in sunset. They are declining and only they can save themselves. With Iran out of the picture, the war on terror becomes one of helping nations control their internal terror groups, there are no more enemies to invade.
Russia can just go screw itself. Putin has betrayed US friendship, reversed freedom and has openly obstructed our interests in Iran and Iraq. The value of Mr. Putin’s friendship will be seen for what it is. Putin will remain a problem but he will never more than a thorn in our side; he thinks he can win another cold war, Russia is even less equipped to win a second Cold War than they were the first time around. As for China, there will be anger but there will also be respect. As China rises, respect and strength are critical. As long as we are doing business together, there are great economic opportunities from co-operation under American global leadership. China will be a superpower.
Why one year? Many in the press have expressed the view that we have years before Iran gets the bomb. The lesson of this war is US intelligence is always wrong. Moreover, if we hope to prevent half the Middle East getting nukes, we have act soon.
We could wait but Iran is already acting like they have the bomb; we should treat them like they are about to get the bomb tomorrow. If you knew a dangerous maniac was going to attack the high school, would you wait until he gets in the car and heads for the school or get him while he is writing up his death lists.
We cannot afford to be wrong. When Iran cheers “Death to America,” they mean precisely what they say. Everything they do is aimed at us. They attack our troops in Iraq to defeat democracy, undermine US political consensus, and drink American blood. They are trying to set up a non-dollar based oil exchange to injure our financial interests. They sponsor terrorism because it costs us tens of billions to defend our interests against terror; this in turn hurts our economic and political interests. Iran is building cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and unconventional attack weapons; I believe they intend a simultaneous nuclear first strike on several US cities. If they succeeded America as we know it would be dead. The damge to US pretige and power, should we fail to stand strong, cannot be overstated. We said we are fighting a war on terror and knuckled under to a third rate bully who said he had a knife. You cannot be the guardian of the world and freedom's shield and cave in under these circumstances to this particular flavor of scum.
Here indeed is an enemy. An enemy we have ignored for far too long. An enemy who we should take at their word. If that enemy is potentially lethal, striking sooner, while we are strong enough to do something about and before they are too dangerous to risk attacking, it is not just sensible, it is a rational act of survival and self-defense.